🔎 In 2023/24, expected surpluses on sunseed and soybean balances are lowered, but situation remains heavy; rapeseed balance still tight.

Production of the various oilseeds was revised up this month

• For rapeseed, the harvest results are better than forecast in the EU, Ukraine, and Belarus, as well as for spring rapeseed in Russia. However, the upward revision of rapeseed production in those countries was partly offset by decreases in Canada and Australia, due to excessively dry weather in September in certain production regions of those two major producing countries. World rapeseed production is still forecast sharply down year-on-year.

• Soybean production is also revised sharply up worldwide as the result of an acreage revision in Argentina and Brazil, considering information on farmer planting intentions. Planting operations are just starting in Brazil, and the centre of the country is suffering from abnormally low soil moisture at the moment. A return of rain is necessary to allow good plant emergence after sowing in the coming weeks. That production increase is tempered by a downward revision of soybean production in the USA, as growing conditions there deteriorated further in September due to excessively dry, hot weather.

• For sunseed, world production has not changed significantly. The sunseed harvest is revised slightly up in Russia based on the early cuts but is revised down in the eastern EU countries and Moldova, due to dry, hot weather at the end of August.

The upward revision of availabilities, along with good rapeseed and soybean crush margins in many regions, have led us to revise the crushing forecast up for those two seeds. Furthermore, soybean crush margins improved this month in China, Brazil, and the EU. Sunseed crushing is also revised up, mainly in Ukraine, considering the better-than-forecast pace of sunseed oil exporting early in the marketing year. Admittedly, Ukrainian export capacity is reduced by the virtual closure of the sea corridor, but the remaining capacity is somewhat better than anticipated. We now estimate its monthly exporting capacity of cereals, oilseeds, oils, and meals at almost 4 Mt (3.8 Mt last month).

Price forecasts

Soybean: world situation heavy - US prices to hold firm at beginning of the marketing year, then fall from February 2024, pulled down by Brazilian prices (if weather conditions are normal in South America over coming months).

Rapeseed: world situation tight - prices have minor upward potential as winter approaches due to high demand for canola and rapeseed oils from biodiesel sector (EU, USA).

Sunseed: world situation balanced - prices expected to hover around low level of late September - expected to fall sharply on average year-on-year.

This is an extract of the World Oilseed Report ✂️ Get in touch to leverage full forecasts.